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MMA COMMENTS FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING
July 22 - 2019
Raymond A. Merriman©
Financial Market Analyst & Market Timer.
This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also be available in these other languages, as follows :
Go to the sheet for Downloading the video for the Ultimate book on stock market timing.
Note : The purpose of this column is to provide educational insights into the tenets of geocosmic studies as they correspond to economic, political, and socio-psychological matters, as one of several tools that in turn may assist in the practice of financial market timing. This column is not intended, nor should it be used, as an advisory service for trading financial markets, without use of other financial market analysis tools. MMA subscription reports provide that type of advisory service, with specific recommendations for trading.
Review and Preview :
Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it seized a British tanker Friday in the Strait of Hormuz. The move by Iran follows the seizure of an Iranian tanker earlier this month by the British Royal Marines on suspicion it was breaking European sanctions and taking oil to Syria. Iran has called for the release of that ship, and earlier Friday, a British court in Gibraltar extended the detention of the Iranian oil tanker. The move comes a day after President Donald Trump told reporters that the USS Boxer downed a drone belonging to Iran. Iran responded by saying it did not own the drone, and the U.S. may have shot down one of its own. Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate up about 1% at $55.98 per barrel just before the close. - Patti Domm, "Iran Says It Captured a British Oil Tanker; Oil Prices Jump", https://www.cnbc.com, July 19, 2019.
President Donald Trump weighed into a simmering debate over Federal Reserve interest rate policy, saying Friday that the central bank needs to end its "crazy" tightening moves. In a series of tweets, the president addressed an unusual controversy stemming from a speech Thursday that New York Fed President John Williams delivered. Market participants initially took Williams' remarks as indicative that the central bank was prepared to cut rates aggressively, by perhaps a half a percentage point. But a Fed spokesman soon walked back the comments, causing confusion over where policy is headed. - Jeff Cox, "Trump Wades Into Debate Over Controversial Fed Speech Thursday", https://www.cnbc.com, July 19, 2019.
It is the middle of the Mercury retrograde cycle (July 7-31), and also the middle of the Venus opposition to Saturn/Pluto, July 17-21. As the NY Fed President John Williams "walked back" his comments, the markets quickly reacted. Gold and Silver had been on a tear into Friday after Williams' initial remarks, with Gold reaching a new 6-year high, above $1450, also on the news of the Iranian capture of a British oil tanker and the shooting down of an Iranian drone by the USA (denied by Iran). But then Gold dropped $30 quickly after the "walk back" by Williams' office regarding his perceived support of aggressive rate cuts. This flip-flopping of claims, denial, walk backs, etc. is classic "trickster" behavior, which is how we often describe Mercury when he is retrograde. Mercury rules news and communications, and when retrograde, snafus and contradictions become the norm. In terms of markets, it correlates with changing sentiment, from bullish to bearish, about every 1-4 days. With Jupiter (exaggeration) still in a waning square aspect to Neptune (confusion, illusion, and delusion) through September, this cosmic combination can be extra confusing to everyone, including market investors.
Nevertheless, world stock indices have continued to hold up relatively well so far under Mercury retrograde. In fact, several indices made new all-time highs last week. Some made these highs early in the week, such as in the USA, and others made yearly or all-time highs at the end of the week, such as in Brazil and Netherlands. Yet others did just the opposite. Some made corrective declines (lows) that ended early in the week, such as in Switzerland, China, and Hong Kong, and others exhibited major cycle lows later in the week, such as in the USA, Europe, Japan, and Australia. These lows were mild, and not indicative of the end of bull markets (yet), except perhaps in India.
In other markets, the big news was in precious metals where Gold continued breaking to new multi-year highs. Silver also joined the advance with its own upside breakout on Tuesday, July 16. By Friday, it was trading above $16.60, a level not seen since June 2018. Crude Oil followed the same pattern as USA, European, and Japanese stocks. That is, it was strong early in the week, then pulled back into the middle of Mercury retrograde, which took place at the end of the week. Bitcoin was interesting too, dropping back to $9000 mark on July 17, down over $4000 from its yearly high of $13,900 area just three weeks ago. By Friday, July 19, it was back up, testing $10,800.
In retrospect, it was a rather wild week, especially for commodities, as a powerful lunar eclipse occurred on July 16, Venus in Cancer opposed the Saturn/Pluto conjunction in Capricorn July 17-21, and the middle of the Mercury retrograde cycle took place on July 19 as the week ended.
Short-Term Geocosmics and longer term thoughts :
Companies are blaming President Donald Trump's use of tariffs, not Federal Reserve rates, as the reason behind the slowing U.S. economy, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Friday. "Most of the companies I've talked to, Mr. President, are saying [the slowdown] is because of your tariffs", Cramer said. "I'm not hearing people blame the Fed as much as they're blaming tariffs". - Jessica Bursztynsky, "Cramer to Trump : More U.S. Companies Blame Tariffs Than the Fed for the Slowing U.S. Economy", https://www.cnbc.com, July 19, 2019.
The new week will begin with the Sun entering its ruling sign of Leo. This is the middle of summer in the northern hemisphere, and symbolically it is a time of entertainment, fun, pleasure, parties, and celebrations. It's a good season to get married, so naturally, I will do that on August 9, when the Sun and Venus will come together and form a harmonious trine aspect (120° arc) to Jupiter, which will be changing directions (from its retrograde to direct motion) in the middle of Sagittarius. It is not only a good time to get married, but a favorable time to come to a trade agreement. And with that hope, a new all-time high in many world stocks indices may come. This time band will remain in effect for 1-2 months, which is why I have stated on several occasions that I expect the USA stock market to make a secondary or all-time high between July and October, and especially in August-September. It has also been (and continues to be) my position that if the USA and China cannot reach a trade agreement during this period, the opportunity will be lost for quite some time, and the stock market will react negatively. It won't be due to the action - or lack of action - by the Federal Reserve Board. It will be directly related to the inability of the USA leadership to close a trade deal with China. So, here is hoping for not only a successful marriage (in my universe), but a successful trade agreement consummated between the USA and China, and the continuation of a solid world economy as a result.
I am not going to hold my breath on the optimistic outlook for the world economy based on a trade deal being completed for several reasons, many of which relate to geocosmic factors. Fundamentally speaking, this is already the longest period of economic expansion on record, as July begins the 121 st month from June 2009. The previous record was 120 months, from March 1991 through March 2001. Thus, a peak is overdue. Second, historical correlations between the transit of Jupiter and long-term cycle crests in USA stocks are very high when Jupiter is in Sagittarius, which lasts from November 8, 2018 through December 2, 2019. Usually the high will be completed before this transit ends. The last time this 12-year transit was operative was in 2007. Jupiter was in the middle of Sagittarius then, too, when a new all-time-high and long-term cycle topped out in the DJIA at 14,198 October 11, 2007. After the high is in, stocks usually decline sharply to a long-term cycle low 1-3 years later when Jupiter is in Capricorn, Aquarius, or Pisces.
The trade deal is the key (Jupiter in Sagittarius), not the accommodation of world central banks as they resume their nation's race for the cheapest (lowest priced) currency by commencing another round of monetary easing under the argument that inflation is tamed. The lack of a secure trading environment is already having a strong effect in China, which is experiencing its slowest economic growth in nearly 30 years. And even though this is now the longest period of economic expansion in the USA, it has not been that robust. The annual GDP rate during this expansion has been one of the lowest of any economic expansion on record at only 2.3%, despite record low interest rates.
What happens when interest rates are reduced even further and there is no great growth that follows due to world anxiety over an uncertain world trade situation ? What happens when Jupiter moves from Sagittarius to Capricorn, where it will join Saturn and Pluto ? It's like going from the land of plenty (Sagittarius) to the land of scarcity (Capricorn).
The Capricorn stellium of 2020 can actually work out fine if the Capricorn concept of "management" is applied effectively to finances. With Jupiter in Sagittarius, the emphasis is on growth and increasing revenues via increasing one's world market share, and hence the movement to lower interest rates (and lower currency value) as a stimulus to increase one's share of world markets. In Capricorn, it will require a balance between revenue growth and the prudent management of expenses in the quest to get a manageable economy. If the treasuries of world nations are "managed" well, all will be well. But if the treasuries believe they can remain above water only through efforts to increase revenues without management of expenditures, there will be trouble. And the name of that trouble is "debt".
Longer-Term thoughts and opinions :
To be continued (next week).
Note 1 : .
Note 2 : The New ICR Cycles' Reports from MMA are Coming!!! Starting on July 2nd, we are going to expand our International Cycles Report (ICR) into two reports... ICR Financials and ICR Commodities . Each report will be covering 7 markets, and will cost, as follows (but there will be a special introductory offer - see below) :ICR Financials : Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered : ASX (Australian Stock Index), RUT (Russell 2000), SSE (Chinese Shanghai Stock Composite), HSI (Hang Seng Index), AUD (Australian Dollar), DXY (US Dollar), and GBP (British Pound)
Release Date : Tuesday July 2, 2019
ICR Commodities : Cost: $325/ Year or $66/ 2 Months
Markets Covered : LC (Live Cattle), MJ (Cannabis), XAU (Gold and Silver), KT (Coffee), KA (Sugar), C (Corn), and W (Wheat)
Release Date : Wednesday July 3, 2019
If you sign up for either ICR Report by June 30 th , you will also receive - at no additional cost - the May issue of our current ICR Report, which contains our initial analysis of Coffee, Corn, Wheat, and Sugar. As a final BONUS, we will send you both the ICR Financials Report and the ICR Commodities Report in July so that you can see and experience both of our new reports. That's TWO reports- at no additional cost- just for trying our new report. SAVE 20% NOW ! If you wish to sign up for both the ICR Financials Report and ICR Commodities Report, we are offering a 20% off the yearly rate for both reports, valid until June 1. Instead of $650 for both reports, your cost will be $520- a savings of $130! Use code ICR at check out to receive the discount. For further information, visit https://mmacycles.com > Services > Subscription Services.
Note 3 : The MMA CYCLES 2020 VISION WEBINAR SERIES is over, but the MP4 recordings are now available. This live 2-hour webinar, sub-titled, " RE-FOCUS YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGIES : ALL CYCLES LEAD TO 2020" was led by MMA Analyst Kat Powell. It featured an in-depth look at longer-term cycles, trend patterns, and price targets for Silver and Soybeans, with additional insights provided on the U.S. stock market and Federal Reserve Board chart. Cost for the MP4 recording is $45.00 and includes PDF charts. Order now while it is fresh!.
Our monthly MMA Cycles : The monthly edition of the MMA Cycles Report (ICR) and its companion MMA Japanese Cycles and MMA European Cycles reports will be issued this week, Monday and Tuesday, via posting on our web site, or attachment via direct emails, for subscribers.
- This report covers our long term analysis of the stock market (DJIA and S&P futures), Gold, Silver, T-Notes, Euro and Swiss Franc currencies, grains and crude oil. It also provides the list of geocosmic and solar-lunar reversal zones for the 1-2 months. This report comes out Monday night to subscribers.
- The MMA Japanese Markets Cycles report covers the Nikkei, JGB Bonds, and the Dollar-Yen.
- The new MMA Europe Cycles report covers the German DAX, Swiss SMI, and Netherlands AEX stock indices, each in english only and will be available on Wednesday.
Two-issue trial subscriptions are available for this service for $55.00, which includes the current issue and the next month's as well.
For subscription information, please go to our web site, or call us at 1-248-626-3034. If you are not a subscriber, you can check this service out on a 2-month trial basis for only $55.00.
MMA's annual Forecast Book : The Forecast 2019 Book is done and nearly sold out. The orders received as of January 4 have been shipped out. As of the close of business that day, less than 25 books remain. When those remaining copies are sold out, they are gone. There will be no second printing. At that point, the only way to read Forecast 2019 will be through the eBook, which is available now for delivery to your inbox! ORDER NOW, if you have not done so already, and make sure you receive your copy of Forecast 2019 before they sell out. For more information on this annual best seller, go to https://mmacycles.com => Products => Forecast 2019.You may also email MMA at email@example.com, or call 1-248-626-3034, 1-800-662-3349.
MMA's annual Forecasts Book , written by Raymond A. Merriman since 1976, is one of the most unique, affordable, and accurate glimpses into the coming year. Utilizing the study of cycles and geocosmic factors, this annual Forecast book outlines forthcoming trends pertaining to political, economic, and financial markets throughout the world. Specific markets analyzed for the next year(s) include : T-Notes and interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gold, Silver, Currencies (U.S. Dollar, Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, and British Pound), Crude Oil, Grains and Weather. Each market contains the important geocosmic three-star critical reversal dates for 2018. Special sections also include the USA and world economy, the USA and world politics, the USA and its President. A 2019 ephemeris and calendar (one month per page) with geocosmic signatures is included, as well as descriptions of the Mercury retrograde periods for 2019. This is a book with an impressive background for insightful accuracy into world economic and financial market conditions that you will not want to miss! For further information, go to https://www.mmacycles.com and click the banner.
For more information, visit www.mmacycles.com or call 1-800-662-3349 or 1-248-626-3034.
This year's printed version of Forecast 2019 will also available in these languages :
Dutch : at www.markettiming.nl
German : at http://www.mma-europe.ch
Japanese : at http://merriman.jp
Chinese : www.nodoor.com
MMA's weekly and daily subscription reports have been extremely accurate and profitable lately, catching the lows in metals, stocks, crude oil, soybeans, and currencies. If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or Daily Market reports. It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or weekly basis. These weekly reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Crude Oil, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Gold and Silver, plus GLD and SLV (the Gold and Silver ETF's). Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report. For more information, or call our offices at 1-248-626-3034. These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). And since early December, these reports have been extremely profitable. As subscriber and trader R.B. of Albuquerque, NM writes",You have been on an incredible run for a while ; I have never seen anything like it". Well, when everything lines up just right...
If you are an active short-term trader, or even if you are an investor who likes to keep up with our current thoughts on financial markets, you may be interested in our Weekly or even Daily Market reports with short-term trading recommendations,
(see a sample there, of the weekly).
It is the only way I keep in touch with traders on a daily or even weekly basis, as I no longer offer personal consultations. These reports give in-depth analysis of the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ futures, Euro currency (cash and futures), Swiss Franc, Dollar/Yen cash and Yen futures, Euro-Yen cash, T-Notes, Soybeans, Crude Oil, Gold and Silver. The daily reports cover all stock indices listed above, as well as futures in Euro, T-Notes, Soybeans, Gold and Silver. Both reports provide trading strategies and recommendations for position traders as well as for shorter-term aggressive traders. Subscription to the daily report also includes the weekly report.
If you want more information call our offices at 1-248-626-3034.
These reports are extremely valuable to those who trade ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds). In the words of one of our subscribers : I am really pleased with your recommendations through the Daily and Weekly Trade Recommendations. I have used them to trade gold and silver stocks in my IRA. In the last eight years I increased my account from $60,000 to $712,000. Thanks for your excellent publications. - Bryden C., Small Business Owner, Illinois.
Upcoming Events :
I am oftentimes asked for recommendations of a money manager who uses my methods, since I won't manage other people's money. The thing is, almost all money managers I know use their own systems. But many subscribe to my services and share my thoughts about the future of the economy, various financial markets, and how to position one's portfolio along these lines. One money manager who subscribes to our services that I would suggest for those looking to structure a longer-term portfolio, such as a retirement account, is Duke O'Neill of Boulder, Colorado. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org, or 1-(303) 545-5837. For those looking for a professional trader of commodity and futures contract might consider Ted Lee Fisher at email@example.com. Ted is a legend in financial futures and has a seat on the CME. Both are very knowledgeable of the tools I use, of the way I am looking at markets, and yet each makes their own decisions as to exactly when to enter and exit any market. They will be more than happy to assist you.
To the above list, I would also like to recommend long-term MMA subscriber Erwin Brunner of Zurich, Switzerland. Mr. Brunner is the founder of BrunnerInvest AG. One of his five funds was awarded theBest in-house fund of funds in the world recently. Mr. Brunner is a former director of the Swiss Banking Corporation (today it is known as UBS), and a general director of Rothschild Bank in Zurich. As an independent wealth manager for high net worth individuals and institutional clients only, he places his clients into the funds of the best performing fund managers in the world, via his own research and experience. For high net worth readers interested in Mr. Brunner's funds, please contact him through www.brunnerinvest.ch.
It is with great pleasure that I announce the addition of Egon von Greyerz to MMA Investment Retreat faculty of presenters. I met Egon last week in Girona, Spain, at a special gathering attended by MMTA Graduates Nitin Bhandari (India), Philipp Beyer (Germany), Henry Canciglia (USA) and myself. Egon is an expert on Gold. He owns Matterhorn Asset Management, a Swiss Asset Management company specializing in wealth preservation, located in Zurich ( www.goldswitzerland.com). He was also the person who initiated the "Save Our Swiss Gold"Act in Switzerland late last year, which would have required the Swiss National Bank to back up their assets with 20% Gold holdings. The initiative failed, but his reasons for initiating this effort are still valid. Egon is very interested in MMA cycles' work, and will share his outlook on Gold and the world debt. This is a real treat!
The newly revised The Sun, The Moon, and Silver Book : Secrets of a Silver Trader, is now out. This is a book that you will use as a reference guide for...many, many years. It identifies all the key Sun-Moon combinations that have a higher (and lower) than expected probability of correlating with 4% or greater reversals in COMEX Silver. It also identifiesBig Range Days - those days in which the range of Silver is most likely to be 3.5% or more of the price of Silver, which is a great tool for day traders. This book fulfills the dream of all traders : high probability winning trade possibilities, with minimal market exposure. It is thatextra edge. And Silver is a great market to trade now. The cost is $125.00. For ordering on line.
The new book titled Solar-Lunar Keys to Gold Prices : Secrets of a Gold Trader , is now out. The long awaited sequel to the Secrets of a Silver Trader is due out in late October (maybe before)!!!
Now, GOLD as you have never seen it by night or day. The studies for the soon-to-be-released book are now completed and the results are now being used in the weekly and daily MMA subscription reports for short-term trading strategies in Gold. That's right... historically tested Solar-Lunar Correlations to trading reversals in the Gold Market - as only available from Raymond Merriman. The studies cover over 40 years of daily Gold, starting from December 31, 1974 through April 2015. The book will change how you approach trading Gold using these leading solar-lunar indicators, with very clear instructions as to "when"to expect 3%, 4%, or greater reversals in Gold prices and how to trade them. It will be a valuable guide for short-term traders of Gold, GLD, and other ETF's involving Gold prices. You may call 1-248-626-3034 or email firstname.lastname@example.org and place your pre-order now. It is also now available for purchase on the MMA web site at www.mmacycles.com. Order now and get the first printing of this new book on trading Gold!
Disclaimer and statement of purpose : The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycle’s analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.
No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.Valeur des terres Robert Loquet - Conseiller général