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M.M.A COMMENTS AND TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WEEK OF 14/06/2010

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Comments :

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Note : We are now entering the heart of the Cardinal Climax, late May through early September. As you can see, this is likely to be a time of great volatility and large price swings. It will be difficult finding exact points to enter that would be considered great risk-reward ratios, for stop-losses in outright position ns will need to be quite far removed in many cases to protect against being stopped out. For this reason, everyone will need to learn to be the dreaded "hedge" trader these days. That is, rather than setting stop-losses, it may be better to hedge your position again extreme price fluctuations using outright long options or covered options that might inflate greatly due to the amplitude of price movements. I may make such suggestions now over the next couple of months, so that we may capture some of these moves I think are possible, without getting stopped out before realizing the full extent of these new or existing trends.

The other thing I want to say is that I thought these moves would be mostly bullish for assets (stocks, precious metals, grains) but with extremely sharp but brief downturns along the way. But in terms of geocosmic principles of the planets involved, I could be dead wrong. There is a possibility also of another panic that crushes asset prices. It looks that way as we enter the first Jupiter-Uranus conjunction. But then again, that signature has a huge correlation to reversals of primary cycle tops or bottoms within 11 trading days, and prices are declining, so... you have to take a stand if you want the possibility of large returns, and hence my outlook will be mostly bullish, but with the advice to sometimes buy puts or sell calls against these positions. Or for safety, even consider outright call options, or bull spreads. This way, your risk is limited.

DJIA Cash : Last week's low was into weekly support and the close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish bias. They keep trying to break resistance and support, but again, no cigars for the shorts or longs, so far. But the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 7 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 10,059 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Weekly support is 9881-9943. A close below 9881 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 10,339-10,402. A close above 10,402 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 8266-8433. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 12,094-12,161, 12,432-12,496, 12,817-12,856, 13,088-13,254, and 13,825-13,969.

This will start the 19 th week of an older 13-21 week primary cycle, or the 1 st week of a newer one following the 9757 low of last Tuesday, June 8. As stated last week, "It is beginning to look again like it is an older primary cycle and if so, it is due at any time in the next 3 weeks, if it is to be "normal". And we are nearing the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction of June 8, which has a huge correlation to primary or greater cycles within 11 trading days, and if it is to work, this one would obviously be a primary cycle trough - and maybe 50-week as well. And we are nearing the midpoint of this huge cluster from May 30-June 25 (midpoint is June 12, next weekend)". Well, prices did in fact fall to a new low for this cycle exactly on the Jupiter-Uranus date of June 8. And this is interesting because the high of the year was on April 26, the date of the Saturn-Uranus opposition. That is rather impressive synchronicity !.

Last week's report also stated, "Based on Friday's (June 7) close, and all the troubles out there (Gulf Oil leak, Euro debt crisis), I would think the sentiment is turning very bearish right now. But that's what you want to see at bottoms... With Jupiter-Uranus, we have the idea that a bottom is forming at any time now... Surprisingly, both support and resistance zones hold each week, and in fact close with a bullish bias the past two weeks. But then there has been no follow through to the upside to support the bullish argument. One would think, with Jupiter and Uranus in force, one of those (support or resistance) would break on a close. A close above weekly resistance would still create a bullish sequence. But we cannot rule out lower prices yet as a primary bottom time zone is still in effect, and as of yet, no strong sign that it is in. Until it is, there are still downside targets to 9531.92 +/- 203.68 and 8863.97 +/- 564.99. But if resistance is taken out by the close this week, we have upside targets to 11,500-12,500. Yet what I don't like is the fact that all these indices took out the prior week's high, and the low was higher too, and it closed below the weekly trend indicator point, which creates a "Pat's Combo Down". Those always concern me, because they can be very bearish for a couple of weeks".

But now - following the Jupiter-Uranus bottom on June 8 - we have a weekly close that is a Pat's Combo Up! Not only that, but as this low formed, the S&P and NASDAQ futures (and S&P cash) did not take their lows of May 25, thus creating a case of intermarket bullish divergence, and both in geocosmic critical reversals zones when a primary bottom time band was in effect too. This is an entirely new and positive development. The market is now bullish so long as last week's low is not penetrated. Thus my bias is now bullish, and that this is a new primary cycle, until proven otherwise. But it is still not yet a confirmation until prices can close above the 25-day moving, which starts this week at 10,281 and continues to fall.

If it is a new primary cycle, it still doesn't confirm that it is also a new 50-week cycle. The DJIA would have to close above the 25-week moving average to strongly support that view. That average is now around 10,500. But the possibility is there. If the low of last week was a 50-week cycle trough, then this market should rally into late July or early August, and retest or exceed the yearly high of 11,258 on April 26. As suggested before, I think it could even reach 12,500 +/- 1000. But if the 50-week cycle bottomed back on February, this primary cycle will be bearish. This rally will only be corrective, lasting perhaps only 2-5 weeks, with a price target of 10,507.75 +/- 177.06. Since Jupiter and Uranus are both in the fire sign of Aries into mid-August, and since they can correlate with price moves far beyond what most expect, I favor the more bullish outlook. Yet I have to acknowledge that the chart pattern still looks more bearish than bullish (lower highs and lower lows of the same cycle types). But that can change.

Lunar cycles for this week are as follows. Anything above 120 means there is a higher than expected probability of a reversal from an isolated high or low:

June 14 87.0

June 15-16 127.9*

June 17-18 100.7

June 21-23 68.1#

June 24-25 94.7

Strategy : Position and aggressive traders may remain long with a stop-loss on a close under 9757 now. If prices approach 10,500 and can't close above there, look to take profits on 1/3 of those longs. Last week's report correctly alerted, "Be watchful for intermarket bullish divergence, in which DJIA, SPM, or NDM make a new low for this year during the week, but not all do, and then they close in the top third of a day's range that day or the day or 2 afterwards. That could be a buy signal for aggressive traders." That indeed happened on June 8 and the next day they all closed in the upper third of the day's range.

SPU (Sep S&P) : Last week's low was below weekly support and the close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish. But the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 7 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 1071.65 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Weekly support is 1052.30-1059.70. A close below 1052.30 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1102.90-1110.30. A close above 1110.30 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 889.55-902.40 and 791.10-791.25. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1384.80-1388.55, 1456.15-1473.80, and 1540.35-1559.60 in the nearby contract.

This also starts the 19 th week here too of an older 15-23 week primary cycle, or the 3 rd week of a new one following the low at 1034.80 on May 25. It won't be confirmed as a new primary cycle until prices trade above the 25-day moving average, currently at 1094.20. As stated last week, "The 15-day slow stochastics still look positive, and if prices drop below the low of May 25, we will probably have a case of bullish oscillator divergence, and a bullish double looping formation". That bullish double looping formation happened, along with bullish oscillator divergence as SPU did not take out its low of May 25 and DJIA did. And both closed with a "Pat's Combo Up" signal. This usually means a new bull thrust is underway. I think it means this is a new primary cycle. And the first phase of all cycles is bullish. In the case of primary cycles, the market is usually bullish for at least the first 2-5 weeks. But if this is also a new 50-week cycle, it could be bullish into late July through mid-August, which is when the next and final Saturn-Uranus opposition takes place.

Last week's double bottom on June 8 followed a script outlined in last week's report, stating, "But remember : we are right in the middle of a time band for a primary cycle trough, and the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction is in effect now (June 8, +/- 11 trading days), which has a very high historical correlation to a primary cycle completion. When it turns, it should be sharp and sudden, with many left behind".

Strategy : Position traders are long with a stop-loss on close below the 1034.80 low of May 25.

Aggressive shorter-term traders are also long with the same stop-loss.

NDU (Sept NASDAQ) : Last week's low was below weekly support and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. But the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 7 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 1832.50 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Weekly support is 1793-1805. A close below 1793 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1869-1881. A close above 1881 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 1649-1662.

Here too it starts the 19 th week of an older 15-23 week primary cycle, or the 3 rd week of a new one following the new cycle low of 1763 on May 25. As stated before, "I like this index the best of all, the stock indices because Jupiter conjunct Uranus rules technology. If the equity markets are as bullish as this signature suggests it could be, then this particular index stands to gain the most." As with the SPU, this market also held the low of May 25 while the DJIA did not, and all closed in the top third of the week's range, which makes it a case of intermarket bullish divergence. Plus we also have a Pat's Combo Up" signal here too, so my bias is bullish, that this is a newer primary cycle. However, it is not yet confirmed, and if prices close back under 1832 at the end of the week, the trend indicator points falls back to trend run down. A close under weekly support, however, would be more ominous.

Strategy : Position traders may be long with a stop-loss on a close below 1763 or 1770, depending on your risk allowance. Aggressive traders are advised to do the same.

EUC (Euro Cash) : Last week was a new 4-year low (June 7), but its range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 12 th time in 13 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 1.2155 this week will upgrade it back to neutral. Weekly support is 1.1940-1.1971. A close below 1.1940 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1.2217-1.2248. A weekly close above 1.2248 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1.5322-1.5458.

This now starts the 25 th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle following the 1.4216 low of December 22. It also begins the 4 th week of the third 7-11 week major cycle phase, following the 1.2142 low of our May 19 critical reversal date. We have now taken out that low, so the lowest price will be at the end of this cycle. Since it is the last major cycle within the greater primary cycle, it could distort. In fact, an argument could be made that this will be a two-phase cycle, consisting of two 11-17 week half-primary cycle troughs, and this begins the 12 th week of the second. In this labeling, it is possible that the market bottom last Monday at 1.1875.

As stated last week, "The Euro is now in the time band for a primary, 17-month, 4.5-year and 9-year cycle trough. I anticipate the low will form with this primary cycle trough. We are now reaching our longer-term price target too, which is 1.1444 +/- .0543. We have other price targets in effect too, such as primary low at 1.1812 +/- .0393, and if this last major cycle is to be a real washout, then down to 1.0997 +/- .0333." Last week's low was into the price target given for a primary bottom. But so far, it hasn't closed above the 25-day moving average, which would be a stronger signal. That average begins this week at 1.2300. The 15-day slow stochastics, on the other hand, are exhibiting a bullish looping pattern and bullish oscillator divergence, which is encouraging to the bulls. If it is a primary and longer-term cycle low, then the Euro will close back above 1.3000 shortly.

Strategy : Position traders are still flat and looking for signs of the long-term cycle lows forming, ideally in about 3-7 weeks. However, it is possible the low happened last week, the day before Jupiter and Uranus conjunct June 8. If we take out the 25-day moving average, then we may start employing long-term bullish strategies.

Aggressive traders may now be long with a stop-loss on a close under last week's low of 1.1875.

Euro Sept (EUU) : Weekly support is 1.1924-1.1944. Resistance is 1.2204-1.2224. The weekly trend indicator point is 1.2169. The difference between cash and futures is .0026 to cash.

JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash) : Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 2 nd consecutive week, which means it remains neutral. A close up this week will upgrade it to a trend run up. Weekly support is 90.94-91.01. A weekly close below 90.94 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 92.20-92.27. A weekly close above 92.27 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 110.92-111.75, 116.25-117.09, and 120.34-120.58.

This starts the 29 th week of the 26-40 week primary cycle following the 84.81 low of November 27. It also starts the 15 th week of the second 13-20 week half-primary cycle low from the 88.10 mark that happened on March 4. Thus the primary cycle trough is ideally due anytime in the next 5 weeks. Nothing noteworthy appeared to happen with last week's Jupiter-Uranus conjunction. My bias is that the currency will fall further than 88.00, but so far, no sign that the decline is really happening.

Strategy : Position traders may remain short with a stop-loss on a close above weekly 93.00, as a primary cycle trough below 88.00 is still indicated in the next 5 weeks. But stochastics are not really bearish, jeopardizing this position, and still indicating a possible move up to 94.50-95.25 if weekly resistance is taken out on a weekly close.

Aggressive traders have taken profits on longs and are now short with a stop-loss on a close above weekly resistance.

Japanese Yen Sept (JYU) : Weekly support is 1.0863-1.0867. Weekly resistance is 1.1009-1.1014. The weekly trend indicator point is at 1.0985. The market is bullish until it closes below weekly support.

Euro/Yen Spread - Cash : Last week's high was into weekly support, which held, and the close was back between support and resistance, which is neutral but with a bullish bias. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 9 th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above 1.1090 will upgrade it to neutral. Weekly support is 108.90-109.33. A close below 108.90 is bearish, and a trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 112.23-112.65. A close above 112.65 is bullish, but a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 140.72-140.96 and 150.58-153.25.

This week starts the 29 th week of 21-34 week primary cycle. It also starts the 16 th week of the second 11-17 week half-primary cycle. Thus we are still in a time band for the primary cycle trough, due anytime by June 25. It may have even happened on the new low of last Monday at 108.05. This took out the 108.86 low of May 25, and did so under a bullish looping stochastic, a bullish oscillator for the stochastic level that day, and now they are rising above 25% with D widening its distance above K, which is a pattern that oftentimes forms when primary cycles bottom. The fact that this happened within one day of the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction is even more supportive. The same commentary applies this week as stated two weeks ago after the May 25 low: "If so (that was a primary bottom), we should now see a strong rally in this spread, lasting at least 3-8 weeks. The 15-day slow stochastics are now oversold, but have not risen yet above 25% to signal the low is in. It will still take a close above the 25-day moving average to confirm." That MA is now at 112.61 and stochastics have now exhibited a bullish pattern.

If this is a new primary cycle, then a 3-8 week rally could see the spread back up to at least 1.1798 +/- .0234. But to be bullish for the longer-term, it needs to close above 1.2500.

Strategy : Position traders may remain long with a stop-loss now on a close under 108.05 or weekly support, depending on risk allowance.

Aggressive traders are also long, with the same stop-loss.

Swiss Franc Sept (SFU) : Last week's high was above weekly resistance, but the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 9 th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run down. A close above .8669 will upgraded it back to neutral. Weekly support is .8572-.8577. A close below .8572 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is .8770-.8778. A weekly close above .8778 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This starts the 26 th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle. It may also start the 10 th week of the third 7-11 week major cycle phase. As stated last week, "Thus a primary cycle trough is due any time in the next two weeks, and may have even happened on the low of .8555 on June 1. On this new low, the Swiss Franc once again has held above its 17-month cycle low of November 2008, and the Euro fell further below its mark of the late 2008, so we may still have a case of bullish intermarket divergence.... If it holds, and the can close above weekly resistance, the low may be in. But with Jupiter-Uranus conjunct this week, we can't rule out a quick and serious washout first, and then a rally. With Uranus, you just don't know how low it can go until it is there or past, so we continue to probe the long side until it catches, because if this is the primary and longer-term 4.5- and 9-year cycle low, the rally could be powerful. I am still looking for this."

Well, it closed with a bearish trigger, so if this week's close is under weekly support, that becomes a bearish sequence. Yet on June 7, the Swiss Franc successfully held above a challenge to that low of June 1, whereas the Euro made a new low, for yet another case of intermarket bullish divergence, supporting the idea that the low may is in. If so, this starts the 2 nd week of a new primary cycle, and price could be higher for the next 2-6 weeks, maybe more.

Strategy : Position traders may remain long with a stop-loss on a close under weekly support at the close of the week.

Aggressive short-term traders are also long with a stop-loss on a close under weekly support.

TYU (September T-Notes) : Last week's range was between weekly support and resistance, which is neutral. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 9 th consecutive week, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 120/09 this week will downgrade it back to neutral. Weekly support is 119/28-119/30. A close below 119/28 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 121/12-121/14. A weekly close above 121/14 is bullish. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 125/13-125/14 and 126/09-127/00 in the nearby contract. But a newer bullish crossover zone also remains in effect at 117/00-117/03. These are all in June, but should apply now to September as it is the nearby contract.

This starts the 10 th week of a newer 15-20 week primary cycle. As stated last week, "There was no clear 5-7 week major cycle trough, so we might be headed for a 7-11 week half-primary cycle trough. Or, this is going to unfold as a "blow-off," "bubble," whatever you wish to call it, and prices just skyrocket if the situation in Europe gets any worse with regards to possible sovereign defaults... In the meantime, prices may still go higher, although we have reached prior targets of 122/09 +/- 28/32, or 121/13-123/05 in both June and September on Tuesday, May 25, which was within the May 20 critical reversal zone time band. Additionally, once can count a five-wave pattern up from the low of 9 weeks ago. This current rally may just be a 'b' wave before a more substantial decline, especially if we can close under weekly support now. With Mars changing signs on Monday, and Jupiter conjuncting Uranus on Tuesday (in hard aspect to FRB chart), it is possible to see a change of trend from a high early this week".

Indeed we made a secondary high at 121/07 on Monday, June 7. But we still can't seem to crack below the 25-day moving average, which would at least confirm a half-primary cycle crest. That MSA is now at 119/18. I am of the opinion that it will do shortly now. Next Monday, June 21, is an important reversal date for this market. It is possible the half-primary cycle trough (or crest) could form +/- 1 trading day. Trade accordingly (sell a high, but a low).

Strategy : Position traders may remain short with a stop-loss on a close above 121/21. Look to cover half of those positions if prices are making a low below the 25-day moving average June 21 +/- 1 trading day.

Aggressive traders may continue the short side with same parameters.

SX (Nov Soybeans) : Last week's low was into weekly support in November (but not July), and the close was between support-resistance, which is neutral but with a bullish bias. And the close was slightly above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 6 weeks, which means it is upgraded back to neutral. A close below 906 will downgrade it back to trend run down. Weekly support is 893-897. A close below 893 this week will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 917-921. A close above 921 is bullish. But a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.

This starts the 19 th week of an older 15-21 week primary cycle, following the 899-1/2 low of Feb 4, or the 1 st week of a new one, following the 886-887 low of June 8-9, as Jupiter and Uranus were conjunct. I favor this newer primary cycle labeling, which means I am now bullish. However this bullish labeling needs to see a close above the 25-day moving average to confirm. That average starts this week at 913-1/4, so it is close.

As stated last week, "It's time for a bottom, but still no convincing sign that it is in yet. And as long as the Dollar is strong, we will have a fight between that bearish factor and the bullish idea we have that a drought will occur this summer. In the meantime, even right now, the market is trying to make that primary bottom, and it is uncertain if we are there, or there will first be a more severe washout in the next few days, and then that rally." I think the low is in, and if so, a minimum 2-5 week rally is underway to 937 +/- 12. If we are right about the drought, then the market will continue even higher into late July and August, and well above this corrective retracement level.

Strategy : Position traders may be long November Soybeans now with a stop-loss on a close under 887.

Aggressive traders are also long, with same stop-loss.

CLU (Sept Crude Oil) : Last week's low was into weekly support, the high was above weekly resistance, and the close was back between the two, which is mixed. But the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 6 weeks, which means it is upgraded to neutral. A close below 75.03 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Wkly support is 72.89-73.39. A close below 72.89 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 79.14-79.63. A close above 79.63 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. A newer bearish crossover remains in effect at 76.66-76.71. It went above it again last week, but closed back below again too, which still offers hope to the bears. The market is not really bullish until it closes above here.

This starts the 19 th week of the 15-23 week primary cycle following the low of 72.43 on February 5 in September. A primary cycle trough is thus due at any time in the next 4 weeks. As stated last week, "It is possible the bottom formed May 25 at 69.62, which is still within the three trading day orb of the May 20 three-star critical reversal zone. And the nearby contract did not take out its low of May 20, so there is still a case of intermarket bullish divergence. But it's not closing strong, so there remains a possibility of new lows as we head into the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction this week, especially if the dollar gets stronger. If prices take out the low of May 25, then the target becomes 63.90 +/- 3.34. It could happen fast, as in a spike bottom." Well, on June 7 it fell back to a secondary low at 71.92, and then turned right back up. So this is a positive sign. But it can't seem to close above the bearish crossover zone, and Friday's close was right on the 25-day moving average, so it could still fall further until those two points are broken convincingly. Yet. As stated last week, "But there is also reason to become very bullish right now because of Jupiter and Uranus approaching their conjunction June 8. If the low of May 25 holds this week, I think it is in, especially if the market closes with a bullish trigger or above resistance." The low of May 25 held, but it couldn't yet close above weekly resistance. I still like it.

Strategy : Position traders may be long with a stop-loss on a close below 69.62 or 71.92, depending on risk allowance

Aggressive traders are also long with the stop-loss parameters.

GCQ (August Gold) : Last week's new all-time high was above weekly resistance and the close was back below, which is a bearish trigger. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 10 th time in 11 weeks, which means it remains in a trend run up. A weekly close below 1218 will downgrade it back to neutral. Wkly support is 1211.10-1212.80. A close below 1211.10 will be bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Wkly resistance is 1249.30-1251.10. A close above 1249.30 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1136-1139.40 and 1014.80-1018.10.

This starts the 19 th week of an older 15-21 week primary cycle following the 1045.60 low of February 5 (1050 in Aug contract). Or, it starts the 4 th week of a newer primary cycle off the 1168 low of May 21. I still favor the latter labeling, although I cannot rule out the former. The difference is considerable. If this is an older primary cycle, then a sharp decline is about to begin that will take prices down for at least 2 weeks, well under 1200, maybe even under 1175. But if this is a newer primary cycle, declines back to even 1200 would be normal and allowable, though I think the market would not even close under 1220.

I am a little concerned that last week's high was on June 7, one day before the powerful Jupiter-Uranus conjunction. That is a powerful reversal signature, and it happened under lower stochastics, thus creating case of bearish oscillator divergence. But in my opinion, the 1168 low of May 21 was even more important, and was in the middle of a three-star critical reversal date, so I think that was a primary bottom. If so, then the new high of last week may be just a trading or major cycle crest, and a corrective back to 1211.20 +/- 10.20 is acceptable. Notice how that falls into weekly resistance too.

As stated last week, "I still think Gold is going to make new all-time highs this summer." Well, it did last Monday, and I don't think that is the end of it.

Strategy : Position traders may now be long, or look to get long if prices drop back to 1211.20 +/- 10.20, with a stop-loss on a close below 1200.

Aggressive short-term traders may also look to buy on a pullback to 1211.20 +/- 10.20 this week, with a stop-loss on a close below 1200. I like the idea of a corrective low this Tuesday-Wednesday.

SIN (July Silver) : Last week's close was into weekly resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the weekly trend indicator point for the 1 st time in 4 weeks, which means it is upgraded back to neutral. A close below 1798.50 will downgrade it back to a trend run down. Wkly support is 1743-1756. A close below 1743 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger. Weekly resistance is 1878-1891. A close above 1878 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1720-1740 (that held the low, which is a good sign), 1580-1598, and 1096-1103. A bearish crossover zone remains in effect at 1881-1987.

I think last Monday's drop to 1719 was a double bottom to the primary cycle that formed at 1705 on May 5. Therefore I think this starts the 6 th week of a 13-21 week primary cycle, and the 1 st week of the second 4-6y week major cycle phase within this primary cycle. The 1705-1719 double bottom represents support to a bull market here. The second low, 1719, happened within one day of Jupiter conjunct Uranus, which is a powerful reversal signal.

For this week, we see strong lunar reversals in effect Monday-Wednesday. I would look for an isolated low to buy into during that time.

Lunar cycles for this week (from "The Sun, Moon, and Silver Market: Secrets of a Silver Trader"). First numbers represent potential for reversal, where anything above 120 has high probability of isolated top or bottom to trade opposite of, and second column represent "Big Range Day" potentials in which Silver could have a range of at least 35 cents (probably more these days) - good for day trading. * represents strong reversal or big range day. The more * the stronger it is. # represents low likelihood for a reversal or big range day. The more #, the less likely a reversal or big range day.

June 14 121.5* 116.9

June 15-16 155.5** 109.1

June 17-18 108.5 16.4###

June 21-23 117.4* 76.6#

June 24-25 128.1* 150.3*

Our Strategy : Last week's report advised, "Let's look to get back in (long) this week, especially if Silver drops under 1708 and Gold holds above 1168, and both then close in the upper third of the day's range, that day or one of the next two days afterwards." Well, we didn't get all of that, but we did make a double bottom last Monday, son traders may be long now, or look to get long on a pullback not Monday-Wednesday, with a stop-loss below 1700 or even a close under 1740, depending on your risk allowance.

Aggressive traders may also be long, or look to get long by Wednesday of this week, with a stop-loss the same as above.


 

Using this information properly : Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above it, it is considered a bullish "trigger", and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish "trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal".

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss"."Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators". Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.

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Email : mmacycles @ msn.com

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